This article called New Jersey part of big gamble by Giuliani in Sunday's Star Ledger really, really upset me. No it wasn't because the article was on Rudy. It was because we had our voice in the election taken away once again and the NJ businesses that were probably counting on some election dollars are not going to see a dime. Since most of you readers are probably not deep into politics like I am now, let me give you some background before my little rant.
- The primary schedule is more compressed than ever. See this screen shot from McCain Path to Victory discussion (see below in a second).
- As outlined in the McCain Path to Victory (watch the video even if you aren't a McCain fan, it is very interesting as a learning opportunity), there is little time in between the early states and February 5.
- Rudy Giuliani is employing a late state strategy with his marketing and campaigning. What this means is that Rudy is trying to "hang on" long enough with his support biding time for February 5th where 45% of the delegates will be selected.
- NY, NJ, CT, and DE are scheduled for Feb 5th and those 4 states account for 201 delegates.
- Buying TV media in NJ is very, very expensive because of the NY and Philadelphia MSAs
- NJ moved its primary date from June to Feb 5th to participate more in the election process and of course reap some benefits in ad dollars.
- NJ Republicans decided to change the format of how we awarded delegates to a winner take all; the Democrats did not make this change.
- Rudy has a commanding lead in NJ according to polls at Real Clear Politics; averaging 48% versus McCain at 10%.
- According to The Star Ledger the change in how our delegates are to be dispersed are "Thanks to a rule change engineered by his supporters (Giuliani) earlier this year"
- On the Democrat side where winner take all is against the rules, Obama continues to campaign here even with a big lead by Hillary.
So how are we doing with these rules changes? Well, again according to The Star Ledger "Which means that despite moving its primary from the doldrums of June to the frenzy of February, New Jersey is, once again, getting very little campaign action. "Practically speaking, I'm not sure much changed by us moving to February 5," said Tom Wilson, the Republican state chairman".
What this means is that NJ does not have an impact in the Primary Election. We are not benefiting from Republicans campaigning here. We are now just one of the states going on Feb 5th and we will see no advertising and no attention from Republicans. Even with the scenario that unfolds in the McCain Path to Victory occurs, there would be little time between Florida and Feb 5th to spend money and if The Late State Strategy fails to work, it wouldn't matter anyway. For anything to occur, Rudy would still have to viable by then but then time and the expense of NJ media would work against any major advertising here.
So what did we get as citizens and small business owners for this switch? Nothing. No attention. Just another slap in the face for living in NJ. No visits. No mention. No, oh how are the polls looking in NJ? We moved our election day up to participate, but now nobody cares because we allowed the way we divided up the delegates to be changed. Does anyone really think that Rudy in the Oval Office will return some favor to NJ for this?
That's why there is no attention being spent in NJ from the Republican Candidates and why we need to watch Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida garner all of the visits and strategists. Some day, we'll get something right in NJ. Your only hope is the General Election.