PardonMyFrench

Did Governor Chris Christie Fall Asleep at a Springsteen Concert? No Way

So the past few days there has been a lot of articles written online about NJ Governor Chris Christie possibly falling asleep at a Springsteen concert.  Now my Governor doesnt usually need help defending himself, but I figured he can use a helping hand from a big time fan and NJ voter.   

As a big Springsteen fan it is IMPOSSIBLE for another big fan to fall asleep.  Even with what looks to me like crappy seats for Gov. Christie - I always go General Admission.

Bruce constructs his setlists with very few down times in the show and on this tour there are only two typical slow spots - Jack of All Trades and Rocky Ground.  However, right after those songs Bruce picks it back up again so even if by some odd chance Gov. Christie kept his eyes closed a little too long while taking in the soulful Rocky Ground he would have jumped back up on the next song anyway. And, this was one picture taken at a moment of time, so sure anyone of us can look bad with a quick photo.

Did the Governor fall asleep?  There is no chance but did he look asleep for what must have seemed like an eternity to the fan who snapped the bad picture?  Sure it's possible but even at that point the Governor would have been on his feet when Bruce and the E Street Band pulled out Rosalita (the very next song).

Rocky Ground into Rosie?  There is no way Chris Christie was sleeping at this Springsteen concert.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

NJEA - When Good Marketing Ideas Go Bad

Are you a Facebook user and living in New Jersey?  Than no doubt you've see the super cheap NJEA support teacher and/or anti-Christie Facebook ads.  You know you've seen them - cute looking woman, NJ map, or now the very misleading millionaires tax ad with a boat.  No doubt the marketing geniuses at the NJEA are paying CPMs that are less than 50 cents, but then again everyone pays these rock bottom ad rates (unless you are on the user's Facebook homepage).  What is kind of disturbing is how they've taken a good marketing idea (Facebook) but outsourced it to people that aren't really paying attention to the community.  Here's a screen shot of the Facebook page and why they don't really get Facebook.

1. They've let the fans take over their comments without really trying to steer the conversation or answer them back with their propaganda. 
2. There seems to be more negative comments and posts which gives the perception that the page has outlived its usefulness 
3. Even when someone hammers them about merit pay for teachers there are a pathetic 4 comments posted in response.
4. The posts are getting really negative against the NJEA.  Here's the best example " The corrupt education machine that has plagued New Jersey should stop pimping out our children and tell the truth. IT IS ABOUT YOU!!!! I am tired of this and other left wing liberal groups doing nothing more than lining thier own pockets. Teachers - grow a backbone and stand on your own feet, stop hiding behind our...."
5. The ads are taking the tone of the discussion into the gutter and even go so far as to mislead people regarding a millionaires tax in NJ.  Governor Christie on the other side is taking his argument to the schools where he stands there and takes questions.
6. The actual website visits don't even register in your typical tools so you'd have to assume their petition drive is not even worth bragging about
7. No paid search ads or content targeting which means they are relying on the CPM targeting in Facebook (sad)
8. The actual site is well designed and my guess is it probably cost the NJEA about $25K which seems like a decent price but the media is useless in its support so they have a well built site which hardly anyone notices.

If I was a NJ Teacher, I'd be screaming mad at this subpar marketing effort.  The Facebook page has been taken over by Tea Party like activists who don't want to put up with marketing fluff and misleading information.  The website has low traffic and they aren't really trying to engage NJ voters where the real action occurs which is in Google and NJ sites outside of Facebook; heck, not even within their own Facebook page.  With the school budget votes approaching, this isn't helpful and NJEA ought to grow up.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Still Waiting for Obama's Stimulus Plan in Union, NJ

Some of you know that I own an office building in Union NJ (BTW - if you want good, cheap office space 20 minutes out of NYC send me an email).  Union NJ besides being Artie Lange's hometown is a decent, middle class, blue collar town.  If there was a perfect town that Obama's so called Stimulus plan would help it would be Union NJ.  It is a very Democratic town - having a Democratic Mayor since 1973.  Union is split at the legislative district between Republican Leonard Lance (Lance's district goes way out to my exit off of Route 78 - a long 30 minutes from Union) and a Democrat.  Again the perfect town for a stimulus package supposedly targeted at small business, entrepreneurs, and the middle class.  And it is my ideal litmus test for Obama's Stimulus package.

A casual ride through town shows the beautiful center of town filled with empty shops.  In fact, right across the street on Stuyvesant Avenue from my favorite pork store, Lutz's there is nearly an entire row of vacant stores.  These stores have been vacant for most of the past year.  Sadly there is always parking in the town lots and this was never the case.  The town center is very quiet and while it definitely isn't as fancy as Westfield's center or Red Bank's center, it has good middle class stores, bakeries, book stores, etc. Unfortunately, I can't remember the last time I stood in line for any of them.

My own office building has been about 1/3 vacant for the last year.  It is primarily a dental office building, but I have a few other small businesses in there.  It is the perfect place to start a business  - free public parking, our own parking lot, on Morris Avenue, 1 block from the Center. and cheap rates.  My first new renter starts in January and that was someone who was subleasing some space.  I also have a very strong lead from another dentist which would be my first real new renter in over 18 months.

And that's why the lack of new jobs created by Obama gets me angry.  Yes back to the stimulus which Obama and Biden promised would create jobs.  The stimulus which Obama said the do nothing model would result in high unemployment, yet unemployment has continued to skyrocket.  Obama's lack of stimulus plan has only resulted in increasing government spending.  Sure, some liberals (including Biden and Obama) will tell you that job loss has stopped and while that is true, the Stimulus has failed to create new jobs which is why unemployment remains high.  

I typed in Union NJ's main zipcode (07083) into Recovery.org and you know what I found?  $12.7 million in Obama Stimulus package money and 7 DAMN JOBS CREATED.  7 FRIGGIN JOBS. That's  $1.8 million per job!!!!

How long does the USA have to wait for real job growth?  When is this President going to help real businesses hire people instead of throwing on top of us more risky plans like ObamaCare, Cap and Trade, TARP, etc.  When will the President and his economic advisers going to realize that by giving big businesses money (TARP), they will fix their balance sheets first so they create wealth for themselves and their stockholders rather than hire more people.  When is the President going to understand as one of my tenants said the other day "I've never been hired by a poor person to paint their office" and that instead of taking antagonistic postures to business he should be working harder?

Right now Obama's Stimulus Plan has been anything but a stimulus.  In fact, if Viagra stimulated this little, it could have only been marketed by snake oil salesman and late night infomercials.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Daggett and Lonegan - Both Ignored The Web and Lost

I'm back from an 8 day vacation in the Happiest Place on Earth - Florida version so I have a lot of posts to catch up on.  Don't worry I'm going to avoid binge posting!

Back in June I wrote the reason Lonegan lost was the complete lack of use of modern internet marketing tools to get his message out to Republican Primary voters.   Well, the Daggett campaign followed up that "case study" with an even worse internet effort which was confirmed by Ali with these words of political marketing folly "From our research, we have discovered that NJ voters are primarily reachable via TV and other media -- not internet -- and that is why we have focused our efforts where we have"

Look I've only been working as a consultant for 4 years in the political marketing arena and I focus almost exclusively on online advertising in this space.  That runs the full range from search marketing, emails, displays ads, media buying, Facebook, and everything in between.  I do focus on search and media buying, but that doesn't stop me from working in other areas.  I've also been during pure online advertising since the late 90s (search, display, media buying) but where I was a little weak to start was translating into politics.  However, I have a great teacher in Becki Donatelli and listen to everyone else I've had the pleasure of meeting and that includes smart people from the Democrats.  One book I keep around is Joe Trippi's book The Revolution Will Not Be Televised.

Joe's book chronicles Howard Dean's rise and then fall in the 2004 Democratic primary.  What powered Dean's rise may now seem a little quaint  - MeetUp, blogs, campaign blogs and videos, heck even a fund raising bat on the homepage, but the message is applicable to every campaign starting way behind with little name recognition.  

IF YOU ARE RUNNING AN INSURGENT CAMPAIGN YOUR ONLY AVENUE OF WINNING IS MAKING THE INTERNET THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF YOUR METHOD FOR GETTING YOUR MESSAGE OUT.

Steve Lonegan lost the Republican Primary to Chris Christie because he didn't use the internet and relied on tired and worn out marketing tactics like direct mail. Chris Daggett lost any momentum he gained via the debates because his campaign chose to ignore the internet at the insistence of their media company who of course made more money by NOT pushing their message out via cheaper and more effective channels.  Without going into too much detail in tactics, here are my top 5 priorities insurgent campaigns MUST do

1. Start very early
2. Kick out traditional media agencies until there is enough money to buy effective GRPs in target markets
3. Only use the internet for paid advertising because it is the most efficient, shows measurable results, and is the great equalizer when you are facing better funded campaigns
4. Invest in great creative developers especially ones like my friend Justin Germany who can create web ads and when you are ready, great TV ads.
5. Grassroots organizing is just not about going door to door and making phone calls, it involves using internet tools like Facebook, Google, wireless, and blogs to identify supporters, communicate with them, find like supporters, and then mobilize them.

That's how you run a modern insurgent campaign - not by listening to old style media consultants who insist the only way to run your campaign is by using old and really useless techniques.  Don't end up like Steve Lonegan and Chris Daggett - people who wasted their opportunities by relying on 1970s styled marketing

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Vote Chris Christie in NJ - Your Only Hope To Get Rid of Corzine

Yes you should vote for Chris Christie on Tuesday.  It is our only hope to rid the state of the economy killing, private job shrinking, and government expanding Governor Jon Corzine.   Look I get that Christie hasn't explained how he is going to cut property taxes, restore rebates, and slow down the growth of government.  I get that I really do.  I also get that if you are a conservative he has pissed you off going back to the primary against Lonegan.  However....

1. The polls are tightening and Corzine can still win this
2. Chris Daggett is finished.   He is not surging in the polls.  Perhaps if he started earlier and used online effectively instead of listening to their traditional media agency (see the quote* below from Ali of the Daggett Campaign on why they didn't have any online strategy) he'd have a chance, but he listened to the wrong advisors.
3. Google Trends right now is pointing to a toss up but Corzine isn't far behind; Daggett is finished
4. Obama is extending his influence in the race even though he knows that Corzine has done a terrible job with this state in creating jobs and spurring the economy.

4 more years of Corzine is a horrible thought.  And for each of you saying to yourselves, well if we have Corzine again at least next time we can run a conservative candidate.  That's the wrong kind of thinking that led some of you conservatives to not vote for Senator McCain - and look how that has turned out.

If you are on the fence, vote Christie.  If you are a conservative, hold your nose and vote Christie.  If you want to make a protest vote for Daggett, now is the wrong election for a protest vote; the only thing that matters right now is to ditch Corzine and Christie is the only vote that can do it.  

Sorry true believers.  The way I look at this vote is to get rid of Corzine first and the only way to do that is to vote Chris Christie.

(Disclosure:  I have had ABSOLUTELY NO INVOLVEMENT with the Christie Campaign.  In fact, my 9 year old son still asks me why would I vote for him if he didn't hire me.  Answer: CHRISTIE IS THE ONLY CHANCE TO GET RID OF JON CORZINE)

*Here's the bizarre, campaign strategy killing decision by the Daggett campaign to NOT use online to network, advertise, and generate grass roots support as posted by Ali from the Daggett Campaign (BOLD is done by me). 

"From our research, we have discovered that NJ voters are primarily reachable via TV and other media -- not internet -- and that is why we have focused our efforts where we have. I can imagine you have strong opinions as to how we should be using our money, but actually the media company who has led every successful independent in this country is spearheading our efforts, so we are deferring to the experts."

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Why Was Chris Christie on Fox News Today - A Week Before Election

I watched Chris Christie on Fox News this morning and thought that it was very odd.  Sure it is great to get free media, but why make the extra stop a week out on a national news show to take softball questions from Gretchen?  The questions she asked him were very easy and almost looks like he knew they were coming in advance.  As everyone knows by now the polls show it virtually a dead heat but the biggest difference between Christie and Corzine is that Corzine has some support in the high 30s to about 40% while I have no idea what the support level is for Christie.  Plus with Daggett lurking and taking votes away from Christie or from the people who don't really care about either of the major candidates, it is dangerous. (Side note: A parent I was speaking to today was surprised that Christie Whitman would lose to Corzine)

So that gets me back to the post, why was Chris Christie on Fox?  Is it an appeal to NJ Republicans at the last minute to give him one final look?  If yes, than why the softball questions?  We learned nothing new about him other than his TV denial about driving down the wrong way of a one way street.  Is it to try to get undecideds?  Perhaps.  How about Independents?  Not sure they are watching Fox News in the morning. Finally, the typical NJ 9-5 worker is not sitting at home after 8AM waiting to watch Christie - they are on the road stuck in traffic somewhere.

To me it just looks like a last second act of desperation by Christie's campaign.  The Christie apologists would say - hey it's free media and that's true.  Too bad they didn't try to get harder questions so that he could explain what some of his plans are to cut property taxes, increase rebates, and reduce spending all while improving the business environment and schools.  I just don't get it.

One thing I do get is that other than Corzine, the online marketing for Christie  as well as Daggett continues to lag.  I also get that the vast majority of Christie signs I see around were put up by the local Republican groups and that Chester NJ which is the next town over from Christie's hometown of Mendham has precious few signs around.  Finally, another thing I get is search and the Google Trends right now points towards the hated and undeserving Governor Corzine winning this race. I hope Google is wrong but hope is all we have in NJ right now.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Senator Menendez's Health Poll - It Doesn't Matter At All

I just stumbled across Senator Menendez's health insurance poll on his Senate website and it made me almost laugh out loud.  As this screen shot show's Menendez's poll is 80% against health insurance reform, but one has to wonder why the consistent liberal Senator would even care about what the voters of NJ think.  I track his votes online on Open Congress and from what I've observed he votes consistently with other Democrats.  So either.... 

1. Menendez is so far down the liberal base that he actually believes NJ is a solid liberal state that will vote along with whatever President Obama wants without question.
2. Menendez is up for reelection in 2012 and wants to see how this issue resonates
3. He actually might listen to NJ?
4. This is just another useless poll that nobody pays attention to including Senator Menendez

The only logical answer is #1 but #4 is probably a close second.  My guess is that Menendez and staff are so really disconnected from the state that they have no idea how NJ would react.  One thing I know about this state is that on average we have a mind of our own and while there is a solid Democratic base here, the rest of the 60% or so of the state is very independently minded; that includes Conservatives.  You'd think he'd know that too, but then again what do you expect from a Senator that rarely changes his vote from other Democrats.  

#4 is a real possibility because the question is so vague that nobody knows what they are really voting for.  The bills in the Senate and House are so complicated that they couldn't be simplified down to a single question.   Most people that I've spoken to are supportive of many reforms but where people separate is when it comes to deficit spending and how the public options is included or not; that nuance is not included in Menendez's poll

Anyway this poll no matter what it says is an insult to New Jersey voters everywhere...

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

This is Just A Sloppy Banner Ad from Christie Campaign

I don't make much money from the banner ads running on my site.  The reason I have them there is to see ads that run specifically in the state.  Banner ads like this very poor quality display ad from the Christie Campaign.  

You might think I'm picking on them for one banner ad but from the very beginning I've been  writing that they don't get online advertising and modern political marketing.  And with two weeks to go they continue to demonstrate the lack of attention paid to online advertising with this very sloppy creative execution - fuzzy graphics, terrible imagery, and two click to play videos plus, the click through as usual goes to their homepage which shows a lack of understanding on how to drive to the correct message on the site.

Judge for yourself.  Is it any wonder with 2 weeks to go this campaign is in a dead heat? Plus, a third party candidate who also doesn't get modern politics (see the comments left by Ali (daughter?) from Daggett campaign) taking votes from the Republican challenger who looked invincible to some (not me) a few short months ago.  Maybe if the dreaded and well hated Governor Corzine snatches victory from the jaws of defeat, people will finally put to bed any question of the importance of having a well run online strategy.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric 

Chris Daggett's Online Marketing Won't Allow Him to Be Viable

(Disclosure: I received several emails after my last post.  I am not involved with Christie's campaign.  I've never spoken with them.  I do want Corzine to lose and I AM NOT advocating that Daggett should drop out).

Chris Daggett's campaign isn't viable unless he can get into the mid-30s as I wrote last week.   Yes I get that The Star Ledger just endorsed him for Governor and Google Trends' finally has a pulse.  

It doesn't matter.  He has no online marketing. The website isn't ready for prime time, it looks he had a cousin build it for him on a WordPress template.  There are no Google ads trying to direct people looking for information on him.  I've seen no display ads, his Facebook fans are about 10% of his competitors and his YouTube page has little subscribers, little views, and really looks like it is a page dedicated for Halloween.  There are no Facebook widgets to grab.

This isn't an insurgent campaign.  There is little evidence to suggest that.  If this campaign had a chance they would have been employing modern internet marketing techniques, however, I can't find a single piece of evidence that the Daggett campaign even noticed what happened in the 2008 election.  Yes Daggett is receiving matching funds and this allows him to be in the debates which he has dominated so far. However, did anyone stop to ask besides paying his staff and buying political signs what he plans to do with the rest of the money?

Clearly it isn't to invest in modern marketing techniques.  I've heard there was a live TV commercial floating around, but I haven't seen it live.  One has to ask why on earth would they run TV ads in this market?  How many GRPs could they actually buy?  Could it even make a dent in your viewing habits if it could even cut through the Corzine buy?  Does anyone want to bet me there will be a horrible waste of direct mail coming your way to a mailbox near you or annoying robo calls to your home phone?

If this was really an insurgent campaign someone there would have used online to network properly and market his plan.  Maybe if Daggett had started ANYTHING online months ago they would have actually been viable.  Unfortunately for them they didn't and they will end up being nothing more than the General Election's version of the Steve Lonegan campaign which also failed any semblance of a modern marketing plan.

At this point from my cheap seats in Long Valley, NJ Daggett isn't viable.  I get that some people are disappointed with the Christie campaign and hate Jon Corzine.  However, NJ needs to get rid of Corzine first and Daggett can't do it.  I get the idea of a protest vote.  I really do.  This isn't the year for a protest vote.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

P.S. Here's an interesting and short article from the Nation Review called Chris Daggett, Jon Corzine's Bodyguard.  

P.P.S Please read the comments for a response from the Daggett campaign. 

NJ Race is Really Between Christie and Daggett

(This is a post for my good friend and college roommate Jim W)

After watching and reading the reports about last week's NJ Governor Debate it is pretty clear this race is really between the two Chris' - Christie and Daggett.  Corzine's fate really rests with Daggett and Christie.  I haven't received and didn't want to dig around for more detailed polling information, but it seems pretty clear to me that around 40% of the voters will vote for the hated, job killing, economic disaster Corzine.   In stock buying terms, that's Corzine's support level.

Christie on the other hand, I have no idea what his support level is.  That's not to be shrill, but I don't have inside polling data to know who are his definite or "1" voters.  Also, for that matter, I don't know Corzine's but he consistently polls around 40%.

Daggett is interesting because he has qualified for state funds and I've seen him poll around 10%.  However, like Lonegan from the primaries his website is horrible, I've seen little social networking, I've seen little search marketing, pretty much not much invested online.  However, in the debates and in the press he is attracting attention and even garnering attention from some of my conservative friends.

The problem for Christie is Daggett.  Usually in NJ you'd get the protest vote,  but this time the protest looks reasonable to a large number of voters.  If Daggett starts polling higher those numbers will come out of Christie.  Check out this recent Google Trends chart to see how Daggett is starting to pick up interest. So that means:

1. Corzine wins with around 40% of the vote (WORST CASE) because Daggett surges into the 20s
2. Christie beats up Daggett and keeps him around 10% of the vote
3. Daggett in a miracle finish beats up Christie enough that he gets more than 40% of the vote

To me, this is the wrong year for a protest vote.  We can't afford 4 more years of Corzine.  Sorry Daggett fans, but unless he starts polling around 30% he isn't viable.  He needs more of a surge and while that is possible and he has some time, I don't think Daggett has the marketing or grassroots support to really make up the distance; too bad he didn't start sooner.   BTW - if you really are a Chris Daggett fan - more power to you, but to the NJ voters into a protest vote against Christie and Corzine, now is NOT the year.

Want to read more, read this post from FiveThirtyEight.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Christie versus Corzine - Old Style Campaigning versus Modern Politics

The polls are getting close right now and unfortunately for New Jersey it looks like my analysis from way early on is not that far off.  This is what happens in the post-2008 election world when you don't employ modern marketing tactics and your opponent does and you seem to lack any visible grassroots support even in towns near your home.  From a new media perspective here's what's going on:

1. Corzine though well hated laid down all of the tools needed early on so that when people were ready to turn back to him (I have no idea why anyone from New Jersey other than the most loyal liberals would) Corzine would be waiting with modern marketing tools.  Plenty of positive and negative videos, Facebook, emails, YouTube, online advertising, and etc
2. Christie's campaign seems to be going through the motions on online advertising.  I can't remember the last time I received an email communication from them even though I get a few per week from Corzine (those include the truly dreadful Maggie Moran versions).  They did start running paid search ads and I do get display ads served to me but they don't seem very targeted other than what I see via Google Content on my website.  Sure they make Facebook updates but you have to kind of be online when they cycle by - that's the good and the bad about updates via Twitter and/or Facebook.
3. From an internet buzz perspective I've received little  to no emails from friends, family or even some Facebook notes regarding Christie.  In fact, if you didn't know better you'd think the election was happening in 2010.
4. Finally, from a search trends perspective, whatever lead Christie had is gone and now I couldn't forecast this race and it looks like a coin flip to the end.

So, I think from a new media perspective it looks grim with 4-5 weeks to go.  I have a few last minute digital media ideas that can still make a difference but can't go into detail yet.  Other than that, I'd imagine the Christie campaign is running an old-style GOTV campaign which means robo and volunteer calls at the last minute, road signs put up by Republican Organizations, and maybe even a little direct mail and door to door.  

If you readers care enough about this state, you should volunteer NOW to help Chris Christie. Pure old feet on the street politics is what he needs right now (except a few last minute digital tricks).

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Chris Christie is from Mendham, Right?

I'm getting worried about the NJ Governor race and it's because Chris Christie lives in Mendham NJ.  Huh?

Well the last few weeks I've had to take my wife to Morristown for health reasons.   The route we take is through old route 24 from Long Valley, through Chester and Mendham and then up through to Morristown. Here's a Google map of how we drive that route. Now some of you don't know the area but driving along old 24 is a mix of homes and small business until you hit the green in Morristown.  I know this way very well because besides being two towns away from where I live, I used to drive this way to AT&T by cutting down through Medham to Bernardsville-Basking Ridge NJ.

Chris Christie lives in Mendham NJ

Here's a Mendham street view by one of the big curves.  As I said very small town USA looking.  You know what I've noticed while driving to Morristown?  Not one single Chris Christie for Governor sign.  NOT ONE. Now, I don't expect to see them in the usual no man's land where political signs pop up (see this YouTube link for Long Valley's favorite area), but to not see a single sign in Christie's hometown is worrisome.

Chris Christie lives in Mendham

Perhaps you are thinking, well that's a main road, did you pull off and check out the side streets? The answer is yes.  We spend a lot of time in Chester NJ.  Chester and Mendham share a high school and are in the same high school district with Long Valley. We cut around the main traffic in Chester and take a lot of side streets.  One of our favorite cut downs is past Bernie's.  That bypasses old 24 and is just homes and farms.  There are no signs on people's lawns.  In fact, I haven't seen a Christie sign in Chester or Long Valley or Mendham and

Chris Christie lives in Mendham.

What this tells me is that there is very little grassroots support and that has me worried.  Sure they have 5900 friends on Facebook but for a state the size of NJ that's not good.  I'd expect to see some signs on people's lawns a few months before the election in the very Republican areas but to see nothing is very worrisome.

Chris Christie lives in Mendham

My assumption is that the Christie campaign is using the old big donor/TV playbook which coincidentally is the only playbook that the Corzine campaign will have.  Corzine is well hated in NJ so any drumming up of grassroots support (Corzine has 9500 fans on his official Governor Facebook page and a truly horrific 3300 fans on his election page) will be futile so the only thing Corzine will have to do is tap into his big donor group, especially the Goldman millionaires, wait for Obama to help him, and blast with negative TV spots. 

Basically this fight will be Christie TV ads versus Corzine TV ads with Obama pumping him up for good measure.  The polls could be tightening and without critical grassroots support for Christie, this has me worried.  Too bad they didn't start their digital grass roots campaigning earlier and

Chris Christie lives in Mendham.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Corzine Sucks and So Do His Banner Ads

I really can't stand Jon Corzine.  I met him a few years ago in Nobu in NY when he was a Senator; I didn't like him then and I certainly don't like him today.  In fact as a US Senator he did less damage because the Democrats in this state voted in another liberal Senator to take his place so their vote results didn't deviate.  However, as this post pointed out, he has done a lot of damage to this state and deserves to get dumped.  That's why these display ads that run via Google upset me.

Let's take a look at these frames starting with Frames 1 through 3.

• From a flash technology standpoint these are are just slightly more technical than a GIF ad from 1997
• The blue is ugly as is the annoying caricature of Governor Corzine as he thinks deep thoughts on how to drown this state some more in taxes.
• Now to the text "He saw this national recession coming so he did something about it.  He created the first economic stimulus plan."  As the graph I posted in this previous post shows, our upward climb in job loss started October 2007 and continues to this day to NJ's highest unemployment in the past 20 years.  So when exactly did this "sage" see this and what plan did he put into action?
•  He didn't see anything coming.  He didn't put anything to motion. 

Frames 4 through 5

•  OK - same bad design format - nothing new or exciting
• However, more spins on this so called action plan about attracting and retaining business, creating jobs, etc".  NJ ranks dead last in business environment thanks to Corzine.
• While Obama's stimulus plan may create some jobs sometime late 2010, there just isnt enough "stimulus" right now to help Corzine by November 2009. 
• The ads end with the same boring, blue, white and ugly caricature. 

The ad is utterly useless.  It doesn't stand out and is almost as annoying as Lowermybills.com; those ad suck almost as much as Corzine sucks as Governor.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Obama's Hypocrisy On Display in Corzine's Email Campaign

On Friday I received an email from Barack Obama supporting Jon Corzine for Governor.  Now while this email probably doesn't come as much as a surprise to you, I was a little disappointed (OK a lot) by the contents.  In fact, this part of the email really was disappointing...

In trying times, Jon is a fighter for the middle class. He created a strong economic recovery plan designed to retain and attract business, instituted major reforms to ease unfair property tax burdens across the state, and made critical investments in schools and transportation infrastructure that will leave New Jersey stronger and more competitive in the years to come.

Really President Obama?  Those points in red are something Corzine did for the state?  Let's take a look at some facts shall we?

1. Hmm well if he attracted and retained business then why is our unemployment the highest in 20 years?What plan did he enact and when?  If he actually did something when did this "Wall St Wiz" analyze the trends?   
2. Heck, October 2007 is when we started this upward climb; he's had more time than you President Obama to enact something if he actually saw this economic nightmare coming.  Facts are HE DID NOT.
3. Oh - and how about NJ's Business climate which you are saying he has helped with this recovery plan?  According to The Tax Foundation NJ is ranked DEAD LAST as a business friendly state.  Hmm I'm sure this horrendous business climate is helping the middle class as you suggests he did.
4. Well how did The Tax Foundation rank NJ DEAD LAST?  Try these stunning statistics Mr. President:  NJ ranks 39th is corporate tax rate, 48th in individual tax rate, 41st in sales tax rate, and 50th in property tax rank.  I'm sure all those taxes are helping the middle class right Mr. President?
5. NJ also ranks highest in local-state tax burden.
6. Oh and that property tax relief you mentioned, sure it got better but it still sucks.  That quote on your part reminds me of a Lewis Black joke when he spoke about Gov. Bill Clinton promoting the increase in AR school rankings from 50th to 48th.  "I took AR from shitty, shitty, shitty, to stinky, farty, smelly". 

What bothers me so much President Obama is that you campaigned on Hope and Change.  A new style of politics and an end to partisan fights.  You inspired a lot of people (I was NOT one of them), but when you come to NJ to campaign for your friend the horrible Corzine, all you are doing is entering into partisan politics and providing more of the same politics that you campaigned against in 2008.

Your words can't spin the bad NJ climate.  Your speeches and rallies can't fool the cynical NJ voter.  Even the folks in Newark, Hudson County, Camden County, etc that supported your election know a do nothing, tax and spend liberal when they see one - especially after 4 years of lousy leadership. 

You want to support your friend.  Great.  Go for it.  Talk about needing a friend in NJ to help your liberal wealth distribution policies.  Just please leave the spins and lies behind in DC.  Corzine needs to go.  Candidate Barack Obama wouldn't have lent his name to such an email devoid of Hope and Change.

Hope and Change in NJ starts with Dumping Corzine.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Christie Campaign Ignores Paid Advertising with Kim Guadagno Announcement

Yes Chris Christie made a great announcement via Twitter when he announced Monmouth County Sheriff Kim Guadagno as his running mate for Lt Governor.  He's getting good press from it but what I found very interesting is the utter lack of paid advertising around the announcement.  I don't know who Kim is - I live in Morris County so I know my own Sheriff (Ed Rochford) but I bet a lot of people don't know who Kim is and I bet a whole bunch of people don't know what a Sheriff does.

So when I Googled Kim Guadagno I received no paid advertising ads.   None from Chris Christie and nothing from my C- SEM graded Jon Corzine campaign (another reason why he gets a C-).  The problem with this strategy is that the Chrstie campaign is totally outsourcing the marketing of Guadagno to main stream media and bloggers in the short term.  If they expected a bang out of this announcement, they should be running paid search ads to deliver searches to the official campaign site and capitalize on the traffic.

This type of tactic is what we employed for McCain's campaign especially well during the primary season when the campaign lived with announcements and endorsements (our marketing for FL Gov Crist's endorsement probably helped us win the nomination).   We proved how to use the tactic again with Joe the Plumber and Palin's announcement (yes it was during the General which we lost, but still the right strategy). 

It really is the best strategy because people will go to the internet to search on Guadagno's name to learn what she is about.  This type of tactic especially in NJ would not cost them much money, plus every impression they get helps with branding and every click they get to their official pages and videos helps sway voters. That's why I gave Christie's campaign a grade of incomplete for their paid search advertising.

Oh well, better luck next time.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Grading Paid Search Marketing in NJ Governor's Race - A C-, Inc, and a B+

Taking a look at online advertising between NJ Governor Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie illustrates who kind of has been told what to do and one that could care less at least in July.  First, Jon Corzine.

Corzine in my opinion gets a C-

Granted I'm as guilty as a lot of folks who were trying to track exactly what I was doing for McCain's advertising in 2008, but like everyone else then, I don't care too much.  Corzine grades out to a C- and it would have been lower except his challenger Chris Christie gets an incomplete.  As I've pointed out in earlier posts, clearly the Cozine campaign has either been briefed or given an internet marketing playbook, but they are slowly finding out that they will be the text book case of what happens when you try to market like Obama but lack his charisma and loyal following. 

The Corzine campaign is running paid search ads but they seem to hit their max budget quite early in the day.  They seem to only have a few variations running on a few obvious set of keywords and every click goes to their home page.  The keywords don't seem to expand into NJ issues like property taxes, economy, unemployment, environment, schools, etc.  This is very basic search marketing advertising and they look like they have a summer intern running their campaign right now. 

They do seem to be running some truly tasteless banner ads through Google's content network which of course take some liberties in how they promote how much good Corzine has done for this state. 

Here are some sample text ads promoting Obama's visit to Rutgers; not only did this give the summer intern a chance to vary the ads, it once again highlights the only way Corzine can win which is the over promote ties to Obama.

Chris Christie gets an Incomplete

I've yet to see any advertising or search advertising online.  Perhaps after labor day they will explode on the scene, but I have low hopes.  The campaign knows how well McCain's online advertising did (don't forget we won the Primary after being left for dead and faced with a much more well funded campaign) so to ignore it seems terribly Political Advertising 1.0.   I would have given the campaign a F but perhaps they are relying on other groups to pick up the slack for them like....

RGA and Other Independent Groups Get a B+

I've been really surprised with the work of the Republican Governor's Association and other independent groups who have been constantly advertising in the state.  They buy paid search ads on a variety of subjects and also run a lot of display ads that set the record straight on Corzine's failed tax and spend policies in NJ.  One of my favorite's has this line - Jon Cozine Watch What He Does not What he Says.  These groups get a B+ for the efforts in the state.

That's it in the middle of July.  A C-, and incomplete, and a B+.  Not a stellar showing for a post-2008 race and a state where it is very expensive to run TV.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

The Corzine Dangers Lurking Online for Chris Christie Campaign

I've written a series of post regarding the year's NJ Gubernatorial race and up until recently the lack of online advertising that I've seen has been disappointing.  That is until the Jon Corzine campaign started to put the Obama online advertising playbook into action.  The Chris Christie campaign however, remains in the internet advertising fog of war with the occasional email message or Facebook post.  This of course has me very concerned because this state needs to make Corzine a one term and done Governor.  Here's what I'm seeing:.

• Facebook - Both candidates have low involvement. Corzine 09 page has 1665 supporters while his Governor page has 9588.  Christie has 4681 fans.  Christie's numbers are a nice jump since the last time I looked but Corzine has lost some (no surprise, but more on that later).  I do get messages from Christie, but few and far between.
• Email Marketing - The Corzine campaign is good for about 3 per week while the Christie campaign maybe sends one out once per week and that's very sad.
• YouTube - Check out the pages of both candidates.  Not much going on here for either of them.
• Paid Search - Corzine has launched a newbie style paid search campaign with only minimum changes to the text ads and clicks driven to the homepage (very search marketing 101).  However, Christie is doing ZERO marketing here which is scary.  The only support he is getting is from John McCain's Country First PAC (hmm I wonder who is directing that) and some enterprising 529 groups.  BTW - this image shows that Corzine is advertising on Christie's name.
• Display Advertising - Corzine is already running them and while they are decently constructed showing some planning for the ads, they once again show a lack of creative optimization and click through to the homepage.  Christie - ZILCH but support from similar folks from the paid search area.
• Website - Corzine's Quantcast profile shows a heavy slant towards wealthy women while Christie shows no real demo patters.  The site traffic screen shot shows that Corzine's campaign's web traffic growth has exploded (I wonder what online advertising does for you?).
• Polling Data shows that Christie is still ahead but Corzine has reversed his downward spiral and his poll growth increase surprising looks like his website growth.  Plus, most Jersey folks aren't paying attention now and are thinking about the shore which makes the numbers unreliable.

What does all mean?  Well Corzine will be the text book example of what happens if a candidate without Obama's charisma, grass roots support, imagery, and likability does by using Obama's marketing playbook.   Hopefully the Christie campaign has more modern marketing tools in their tool belt come Labor Day but it will be an uphill battle given Corzine early foray into online marketing.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Corzine - Using Obama's Marketing Plan without Obama's Personality

Well the NJ General Election for Governor has started and Corzine's campaign has wasted no time in borrowing Obama's Marketing playbook.  I've already received about 3 long emails from them plus links to videos on their YouTube video channel (I can't bring myself to link to anything to do with that campaign, so sorry). 

Their latest state of the campaign video is actually a compete joke when they talked about how brave Corzine was after his accident which was self inflicted when he refused to wear a seat belt while his driver was speeding on a highway on his way to an Imus interview.  As a reminder, here's Corzine's accident story so I find it appalling that his campaign would in any way shape or form describe him as being brave. 

Anyway, Corzine the Governor has 9200 Facebook friends while Corzine the Candidate has about 1900 friends.  So this got me thinking....

• Corzine's campaign studied Obama's campaign playbook and will try hard to duplicate it
• However, Corzine is well hated and is already trailing Christie in the early polls.  Corzine's approval rating is at 35% and his unfavorable rate is holding steady in the mid 50s.  I don't remember ever seeing Obama with those kind of ratings.
• Corzine can't give a speech and can't even pass himself off as a man of the people
• and finally, it is extremely hard to run a grass roots networking campaign when you don't have the charisma of Obama and can't generate passion among the voters when you are well hated by the electorate.

However, what Corzine does have going for him is a crap load of money and President Obama.  If you watch any of their boring, poorly shot videos or read any of their novel sized emails you'll see that

1. They will not run on his crappy job, economy, and spending record
2. They will push the linkage with Obama and Biden
3. They will pump up Obama's spending, stimulus plan and feature Corzine as a friend to the administration
4. Tie into anything to do with Obama - my guess is Corzine will only frequent the same restaurants as Obama and start smoking the same cigarettes. 
5. Paint Christie as a friend to the "vast right wing conservative conspiracy"  even so much as linking him to Sarah Palin even though there is little to no evidence of this

Corzine will do anything and spend anything to win.  He will have President Obama with him, so I do hope the Christie campaign starts quickly on their internet strategy, otherwise we are just handing over that territory to someone who does not deserve reelection.

BTW - Hat tip to my friend Mark.  The knuckleheads at camp Corzine prove my points with their "ineptitudeness" on natural search results.  Clearly they know how important natural search is from Obama's marketing playbook, they just don't have the experience to the plan into correct action.  Here's a screen shot of the natural search results for the keyword "jon corzine".  Clearly the Corzine campaign will be the case study of marketing like President Obama without Obama's skills as a campaigner or without the experts who ran his eMarketing campaign.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric.

Why Lonegan Lost, Christie Has Work to Do, and Corzine Isn't Dead Yet

By now you know that Steve Lonegan lost to Chris Christie in the Republican Primary to take on well hated current Governor Jon Corzine for NJ's top job in November 2009.  As I was driving to my Union NJ office building yesterday I had on NJ 101.5 and listened to all the Lonegan supporters whine about how stupid the other NJ voters are for voting for Chris Christie.  I heard people moaning about how Christie bought the election and how Christie fooled them.  This got me really fired up.

The Steve Lonegan campaign failed to get their message out.  It wasn't that Christie's marketing was so slick.  It wasn't.  It wasn't that Christie spent boatloads of money in the primary; he didn't.  The failure of Lonegan's campaign rests clearly with their campaign for failing to use any modern marketing techniques as was demonstrated by the 2008 Presidential campaign.  You can read these past posts to see how I was tracking Lonegan's lack of modern marketing.  Lonegan's campaign relied on:

• NJ 101.5 to pump out his message.  This is preaching to the converted
• Paul Mulshine which again is preaching to the converted
• Direct Mail which is a complete waste of time and money
• The occasional well hated robo call

Basically the Lonegan campaign used an old school playback for political marketing which didn't allow his message to spread virally,   What did he miss?

1. Paid search ads to interrupt the masses with messages while they are looking for information
2. Email communications targeted to Republican voters in NJ for pennies on the dollar
3. Display ads on popular NJ sites
4. Facebook for voter activism and grass roots organizing; don't get fooled by the 2K Facebook supporters.  They didn't employ any networking techniques and barely used it to push out messages.
5. YouTube views were pathetic
6. Where was the ability to get supporters to talk to their friends and pass out messages via Facebook or some other online organizing?

I'm catching up on some old reading and found a print out of an Esquire article regarding Obama's campaign manage David Plouffe.  Inside it has this line which wasn't quoted but makes a lot of sense that he could have thought it or even said it. "We have to beat Clinton. She has the establishment support, she has this huge system of money-raisers, so we must create an alternative network."

Substitute Christie for Clinton in the Primary with Lonegan and now Corzine for Clinton in the general election and you see why I'm concerned about beating Corzine in the fall and why Lonegan lost.  In NJ or any other state for that matter, you can not just rely on old school political marketing playbooks.  You must use modern marketing techniques especially when taking on the hated Corzine and here's why:

1. He is rich and can spend boatloads of money
2. He doesn't have to rely on the small donor and can tap into his Goldman millionaires
3. Do you really think President Obama is going to sit on the sidelines of this election?
4. Corzine and Obama will focus on those high populated areas which ALSO COINCIDENTALLY ARE THE CITIES WHICH RECEIVED THE MOST OBAMA STIMULUS MONEY.   
5. If you don't think #4 is a problem, you aren't paying attention
6. If Corzine needs help with his Digital strategy, he can, umm, tap into Blue State Digital for help (Obama's guys and gals).
7. I read somewhere today (NJ.com or Daily Record) that Chris Christie will be accepting matching funds which limits him to $10 million or so.  That virtually eliminates a large TV buy in this state until the end.
8. In order to win, Christie has got to get his message out to voters across the state and shouldn't ignore #4.  In order to be smart about #4 he needs an alternative marketing plan - which would be search marketing, email and display, plus online organizing - basically Obama's playbook.
9. Search marketing is the great equalizer where the biggest spender isn't always the biggest winner.

Lonegan didn't lose because NJ voters are stupid.  Lonegan lost because he didn't get his message out and didn't have his supporters network and organize online.  Chris Christie should beat the hated, useless, NJ economy killing Corzine but he can't rely on going toe to toe with a foe that can and will outspend on old school marketing techniques and a foe who will rely on a popular President to rally his stimulus receiving supporters. 

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Chris Christie versus Steve Lonegan before June 2 2009 Primary Vote

The last couple of weeks I've been traveling all over the state.  I've been in NYC which means a drive down Route 78 to Jersey City to take a PATH to a meeting.  I've visited my in-laws who live 30 minutes west of Milford PA so I had to travel through North West NJ.  I've also been in my Union NJ office and traveled through parts of Morris County.  This past weekend I visited my former college roommate Sam down in Cherry Hill NJ which was a drive down Route 31 to Route 295 over to Route 70 and then local roads to Sam's house.

You know what I've observed?  Few Chris Christie road signs and a ton of Steve Lonegan signs.  If road signs are a measure of grass roots support, Lonegan has a huge following!  In fact, I think my home has received more robo calls from the Christie Campaign than all of his signs I've seen in place. 

Throw in some TV ads I've seen and wasted direct mail pieces and it is clear that the campaigns are employing old-school styled politics.  I'm pretty much confirmed that strategy through the lack of online marketing employed by either campaign.

As usual this campaign will hinge around voter turnout.  The NY Times has a good article on how both candidates are trying to drum up last minute GOTV activity.  Based on the marketing techniques employed and ignored to date, it is clear that a low voter turn out favors Lonegan and an average  one or better (12% of primary voters) favors Christie.  I think Lonegan's conservative message coupled with anti-Obama furor gives him an advantage in turning out the few right wing conservatives that live in NJ.  Pollster.com has this chart which shows Lonegan closing fast versus Christie, so I don't think it is over.

However, as I wrote a while back I think either candidate will have a tough time with Corzine.  Yes Corzine is vulnerable, but neither Republican candidate is actively embracing the internet for marketing or grass roots organizing.  Online networking will be key to market in traditional Democrat strongholds that also coincidentally have large populated areas.  The internet is the great money equalizer and even with a well hated Governor like Corzine, he has too much money, he can generate too much money from all those Goldman millionaires, and President Obama is lurking in the shadows to help turn out his voters to rescue Corzine.

Lonegan or Christie?  Just make sure you go out and vote on June 2.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Dear Christie and Lonegan Campaigns - I Don't Think Corzine is Dead Yet

Watching the NJ Republican Debate the other night and tracking what is happening online for the three main candidates Lonegan, Christie, and Corzine I can't help but wonder about the missed opportunities to communicate and organize locally in NJ.  Right now Corzine is in a lot better shape than most NJ folks think and as both major Republican candidates duke it out, they should be gearing up for a GOTV machine coming their way in the fall.  Here's what the view looks like from my cheap seats in Long Valley, NJ.

• Neither Republican candidate right now gets organizing online.  This is a glaring hole in their strategy come September.  Both have woefully low SocNet engagement and no search marketing to drive interested parties to their website for information.
• Both candidates now are using old playbooks by running TV ads, dropping crappy direct mail, and bombarding registered Republicans with the always friendly and welcomed robo call.
• Supporters are slowly putting out road signs but last Friday I road out from my home to Denville and then back.  Then I drove out to Clark NJ via Route 78 and back through Scotch Plains.  I think I saw less then 6 Chris Christie signs which is shockingly pathetic.  Where is the grass roots support?
• I'm seeing little commentary and momentum in the blogosphere.  In fact, the only guy that seems to drum up any excitement is Paul Mulshine.  Neither side however, seems to send supporters out to popular blogs and articles like that to push their talking points.
• Video content is pathetic at best
• Email communication is non-existent unless you count the occasional Facebook message as email
• The polls found on Pollster.com show that Lonegan is behind Corzine at this stage and Christie holds a decent lead. However, these polls are meaningless in NJ right now because the average voter is not paying attention because we have bigger economic worries or you are gearing up for a well deserved and needed summer down the NJ shore.
• Barack Obama will campaign here in NJ for Corzine and will definitely focus where large areas of voters are found - Camden, Newark, Bergen County, Hudson County, and Union County.  Obama carried this state by 15% - Obama beat McCain in Essex County 240K to 74K.

Using Essex as and example, Lonegan/Christie should focus on using the internet to organize the McCain supporters in these popular areas.  TV ads will be wasted on them there and expensive if you go network; DM is useless.  Only by following Obama's playbook for grass roots organizing online can a Republican be competitive there even when the Obama GOTV machine touches down in Newark Airport.

Until I see some real online organizing activity Corzine still has a good chance to get reelected once President Obama comes to town.  I think it is sad that neither campaign sees the power online for finding and organizing folks in areas that are not normally good areas to market in.

As I've told everyone that has ever asked me, Obama didn't wake up one day with all of those Facebook friends.  That strategy was started a long time ago, so the time is now for Lonegan and Christie.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Lonegan versus Christie versus Corzine - Who Gets eCampaigning in NJ?

I had completely different posts in mind for tonight, but I can't hold my my tongue (really my fingers) any more.  Why?  I am completely sick of receiving 1980s styled political marketing communications from GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Lonegan. This isn't the first time I wrote about this campaign's lack of progressive (progressive as in new and not liberal) marketing techniques.  However after weeks of receiving the same really wretched direct mail campaigns begging for dollars, tonight was the last straw for me.  Stuffed in my mailbox was a newspaper styled flier with a real cheesy bumper sticker and a return envelope to give a donation.  Not only does this insult political marketing post the 2008 election but it deprived the US Post Office from postal processing fees.

So of course I decided to take a poke around the internet to see what I can find on the candidates.  Now I'm a busy man, so I didn't research all of the like dozen candidates to beat a vulnerable and weak Jon Corzine because well if I can't find the big three advertising online I'm not that worried about the rest.  So here's what I found...

1. Paid Search Marketing - Nothing.  Not a thing.  None of the three are advertising online for people that are looking for information.  This is like shooting fish in a barrel in NJ.  There are tax issues, spending issues, economy, environment, etc that a well thought out campaign could be running to get in front of voters.  Seriously, this is a piece of cake.  It will raise donations, get people to join the campaign, and help voters understand where these candidates stand on issues.  Remember, we won AAPC's best use of new technology award for search makreting so I kind of know what I'm talking about.
2. Social Networking - I joined Christie's as well as Lonegan's Facebook pages.  Corzine I did not join but a quick browse of that page shows almost 9.900 supporters and a lot of information; it has also been updated on a regular basis.  Lonegan has 974 supporters but since joining I've yet to receive any emails/messages via this group.   It also seems that Lonegan is using a ghost writer /ghost Twitterer to make posts.  Chris Christie has almost 3,400 fans and it appears his brother makes semi-authentic messages and posts (I wrote semi because I don't know if he really writes them, but it sure looks like that).  
3. YouTube - Christie loaded up a recent video 2 days ago and has 34 subscribers and his most viewed video has about 1,244.  I couldn't find an official Lonegan YouTube page and gave up looking for it (there were no links from his website).  BTW - same thing for Corzine.
4. Twitter - The Lonegan campaign uses Twitter and has 720 followers but the Tweets I saw look nothing more than press clippings. Christie has 734 followers and Tweets in the same fashion as Lonegan.  Corzine has an account with 140 followers but no Tweets.  Clearly somebody just grabbed the Twitter account just in case they figure out the internet before the fall.
5. Website - Corzine websites is barely above brochureware with no links to any social networking options.  He does have one thing going for him which is a picture with Obama.  Lonegan's site is an improvement over Corzine's but other than the top masthead it is in need of a face lift.  The homepage scrolls forever with repetitive links all over the page and their use of colors in inconsistent.  Sure the site has a lot of information but it is poorly organized.  Quite frankly it needs a MASSIVE overhaul.  Christie's website is beautifully designed and looks like a modern political website.

Based on what I can see, none of these three warrant a rating of A for their eCampaigning prowess.  The best of the bunch is the Christie campaign even though they haven't employed paid search marketing and can do more in the YouTube and online grass roots organizing areas.  Lonegan's campaign with its wasteful use of direct marketing really doesn't seem to get using the internet.  Seriously instead of dropping bad direct mail, improve the website and use search marketing as well as YouTube. 

Christie needs to make some small improvements (search and online organizing), but Lonegan needs a massive overhaul to even get in the game.  Why?  While Corzine is weak and well hated in NJ, he will have the greatest campaigner alive working the phones and campaigning for him in the fall; more importantly President Obama will be campaigning for Corzine in the more populated areas of Camden County, Essex County, and Hudson County.  That means Corzine has a BIG DAWG in this fight.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Al Franken Wins MN Senate Seat - Who's Next Artie Lange?

Yes my wife will tell me that I've run out of Artie jokes here, but then again she bought me Too Fat To Fish.  Anyway, the Associated Press has reported that comedian Al Franken has been certified the winner of the Minnesota Senate Race. Norm Coleman will of course fight this in court, but thanks to the people of Minnesota and a little Barack Obama coattails we in this country have to deal with this clown in the Senate.  I did a little work in this race and I can tell you that of all the races that I've worked on that lost, this is the craziest one. 

Al Franken has no business being a US Senator.  He has no real policies, but he made it in by bashing President Bush.  His company failed to pay taxes or carry workers compensation.  The guy is a clown and broke the law, but the people of Minnesota overlooked that and elected him anyway.  When Minnesota elected Jesse Ventura a lot of people snickered, but not me.  That's their state and they can do what they want but the US Senate effects all of us.

Seriously, that's awful.  That's like New Jersey electing Artie Lange to the US Senate.  Heck, I think Artie would make a better Senator than Al Franken and here's why....

TEN REASONS WHY ARTIE LANGE WOULD BE A BETTER SENATOR THAN AL FRANKEN

1. Like a lot of members of Congress Artie has already been arrrested
2. Sure Artie has a drug problem, but at least you know that going in and won't find that later on.
3. Writing of drug problems, who better to help fight drug abuse then someone like Artie?
4. Artie is a true rags to riches to on the rag and back to riches person.  He never attended a classy place like Harvard to get his education
5. Artie is a true working class person - driving a cab, working as a long shore man in Newark NJ.  He understands the working man.
6. Unlike other Senators, you're pretty sure Artie won't get caught soliciting a male police officer in the men's room of an airport.
7. According to Artie he already has a long history of dealing with prostitutes but unlike Spitzer he won't need to transport them across state lines or overpay for sex.
8. You already know he will work with labor Unions and is very liberal.  That makes him attractive to NJ's most influential voting group the CWA which if it isn't already, will be representing the largest pool of workers - the NJ Government payroll.
9. No need to worry about ties to organize crime; although Artie can help represent the gambling and casino groups since he can explain what a vig is...
10. Finally, Artie has a huge following especially in the youth voting segment making it easier for Artie to get elected in NJ.  You won't have to worry about long recounts because the youth vote will go in mass for him, plus the Unions, gamblers, drug addicts, pro-legalization of pot people, prostitution, Italians, the arts and entertainment, casino and horse racing industry, cab drivers.  Heck he'd probably carry NJ by a much larger spread than Obama.

So since I'm pretty sure that Artie could win a US Senate Seat if he can survive until 2012 or until Frank Lautenberg goes on life support, I've bought the URL http://www.artielangeforsenate.com.  You can email me now if you want to help.

PardonMyFrench and my joke,

Eric

Obama's Economic Recovery = 600K New Government Jobs?

Catching up after being in Disney for the past week celebrating the end to one of the crappiest years in recent memory and I read and watched Obama's American Recovery and Reinvestment plan.  And while I want to give him a chance there are just a few things that make me very skeptical. 

• We must demand vigorous oversight and strict accountability for achieving results. Hmm like the TARP bill he voted for?
• create three million new jobs, more than eighty percent of them in the private sector. 3 million * 20% = 600,000 public sector jobs.  That's just more politics of the same.
• we must restore fiscal responsibility and make the tough choices so that as the economy recovers, the deficit starts to come down. Hiring 600K new Government employees will kill our chances at ever digging out of this spending mess.  How will you get rid of them.

Tax cuts are a good idea and so is providing relief to businesses who we hope will not just pocket the money but actually add jobs (see TARP and Bank of America as the primary example of how this didn't happen).  However, adding 600K people to Government payrolls will kill our chances going forward.  The rest of these plans while HUGE are temporary expenditures, hiring people and putting them on payroll will cause HUGE problems for the future.   

OK, so you want to fixing crumbling bridges, roads, and school.  I get that.  That spurs contractors, banks, and etc.  You want to invest in green technology.  Check, get that too (BTW - I'm hoping for bigger tax credits so I can update my building in Union, NJ).  600K Government jobs - HORRIBLE IDEA.  Just visit NJ for a perfect bad example. Oh, I forgot, you like our Governor.

Sorry Obama, you won't get credit for meeting your 3 million new job goal by sticking it to the taxpayer.  That's just more politics of the same and offers no CHANGE.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Starting Early in New Jersey - Online Support for Jennifer Beck

In Sunday's Star Ledger there was a little blurb (I looked on NJ.com but couldn't find it in 5 seconds so no link for you) about a blogger starting a petition and a website to draft State Senator Jennifer Beck (R-Monmouth) for NJ's first Lt. Governor.  I was actually going to make a generic post on how politicians should get a jump start on 2009, but I'll use Anthony Del Pellgrino's grassroots effort as the example.

WHY IT IS IMPORTANT TO START NOW FOR 2009 ELECTIONS

1. Build Your Online Tools Now - It used to be you can throw up a website, hope people show up but in the end you'd rely on proven techniques like phones, mail, radio, and if you were big enough TV.  You'd work the backrooms in NJ politics and all of that takes time, money, and staff.  Building a website takes a fraction of the dollars needed to run a full campaign and like Anthony, you can put up a decent site with all of the tools using Wordpress (I put my board of ed site up in a few hours with a total amount spent of $15).  Basically to get started, you need a marketing plan and maybe ONE PERSON who knows what they are doing online.
2. Social Networking Supporters Don't Just Magically Appear - I wrote a great post called Why Weren't We More Social which examined some false conclusions regarding Senator McCain's social marketing techniques.  The net take away is that you must start early to really have a conversation and get people involved.  That means building a blog, a Facebook page, a YouTube channel, a Twitter account, and your email-supporter list.  Anthony gets it right by starting now.
3. If You Build It, Will They Come? - Grassroots efforts require seeding - that is people and supporters who are willing to put in time without any long term promises.  They need to make comments on NJ blogs, link to other sites, drive traffic, and put the tools at people's disposal to spread the messages.  Basically, you need to direct supporters onto NJ blogs, news sites, NJ popular sites, etc to generate activity.  As with any grassroots efforts and without paid advertising, this means you need time to gain critical mass.
4. Earned Media Is Your Best Friend - One of my major lessons learned from Senator McCain's campaign and specifically campaign manager Rick Davis is that even when you are down and out, earned media is your best friend.  That means you need to make yourself available to the press - radio, TV, and print in order to get free media. Whether you are officially running or not, the press can do for you what a branding campaign can do for you  - get you brand name recognition.
5. Get Online Experience - Once you put together your marketing plan, you'll undoubtedly have groups of voters that skew online and other that don't.  That doesn't mean that you can't use online tools to contact all of them, but you need to get experience with which ones work more effectively by your target groups.  Plus, when you look at what you need to win at the state level, who knows how many votes you can get in the long tail.   Anyway the beautiful aspect of online marketing is how measurable it is so you can optimize your efforts and get the experience needed before your competition does.

The only critique I'd make regarding Anthony's efforts are to ease up on the length of the posts and that's saying a lot coming from me.  I don't know how he is doing on the other points above (petition right now has 5 signatures including Anthony) so it is unfair to critique.  However, he is setting an example for NJ politicians on how to get a jump now on 2009.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Old School Facelift #10 Chris Christie Steps Down - Strategies for Running for NJ Governor

Chris Christie steps down as US Attorney fueling speculation that he will run for Governor versus Gov Jon Corzine or Richard Codey if President Obama mercifully rids this state of Corzine for an administration job.  Whether Christie runs or not or some other up and coming NJ Republican, running a campaign in NJ is extremely challenging.  We are a diverse state with large population centers in Hudson County, Newark, and Camden/Trenton plus we have the shore and the farming areas like where I live in Long Valley NJ.  We have a major newspaper in the Star Ledger but unfortunately TV is tough because you have to buy in the NYC and Philadelphia MSAs.  Finally if Corzine is still in office, he has boatloads of money so what's a NJ Republican supposed to do....

OLD SCHOOL FACELIFT #10 - CHRIS CHRISTIE RUNNING FOR NJ GOVERNOR

1. Build a website today.  Why?  Besides the obvious reasons, there are plenty of real-time NJ issues like the bailout, unemployment, taxes, NJ budget and you need to get on top of those issues NOW while people are paying attention.
2. Buy a list of NJ Voters  - You'd instantly have a starting database of emails, names, issues, voter registration, etc to start your marketing right.  You'd also get an idea of what your potential base of voters are and where you need to do voter registration.
3. Social Networking - Start building your base of supporters now.  Obama didn't wake up in October 2008 with millions of supporters.  It was started years ago.  Blogger outreach is critical and not just "A" list bloggers.
4. Your NJ Media Strategy Is This - Between now and September 2009, earned media on TV and prints, internet media via Google and other search networks, social networking, and direct mail only for donations when it proves out.  After Labor Day you could go into TV if you have more than enough money.
5. Online Strategist as Senior Advisor - No in NJ it definitely should not be the typical media consultant.  TV in this market costs too much money and the correlation between TV and behavior is sketchy now.  There are far more efficient ways of political marketing and you need someone at the Senior Level that understands how the internet works and why new media strategies are needed. 

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

The Value of a Political Lawn Sign - Too Much to Ignore

About a month back I wrote a post called What's The Value of a Political Lawn Sign where I looked at the local town committee race between Republican Jim Harmon and Independent turned Democrat Kevin Nedd.  Basically, Kevin made a no political sign pledge and Harmon did not.  Well the results are in and Jim Harmon won.  So what does that tell us about the value of political lawn signs?  Well it turns out there were probably other factors at work, but I wouldn't run a race without them especially the ones that go on supporter's properties.

As you can see from this chart Harmon received 5,413 votes and Nedd received 3,203 votes.  That turns out to be the second most votes for any Democrat candidate on the slate.  Greenberg for Freeholder had the least amount of votes which probably represent the base support of WT Democrats and Democrat voting Independents.  Nedd didn't get as many cross-over Republicans and Independents as Obama, so what happened?

When Nedd flips over to be a Democrat the way for him to win was straightforward but difficult.  He would get probably like 99% of Democrats, but would have to pull about 20% of Republicans and then split the Independents. Given that he was also the Morris County Chair for Obama he would live or die by Obama's coattails.

There were Obama signs in town but no Nedd signs.  Both Nedd and Harmon dropped mail (an ABSOLUTE WASTE OF MARKETING DOLLARS) and both made robo calls.  Nedd probably got slightly more earned media but definitely not enough.  There were three campaign related sites in town.

• Jim Harmon Alexa Rating = 3,745,622 (1,467 hits)
• ReelectNedd Alexa Rating = 3,343,600 (1,643 estimated hits)
• KevinNeddSaid Alexa Rating = 6,205,655 (885 estimated hits)

I don't know the actual traffic ratings but the Harmon site has a traffic counter and if we use his site counter to Alexa rating ratio we can estimate the other sites visitors (next to Alexa).  None of these numbers are impressive and show a lack of community interest.  To put it in perspective, my own failed BofE campaign generated almost 3,500 visits in less than one month.  The Harmon and Nedd sites were up for months.

Based on the data above, I can only conclude that:

1. Political Lawn sign are important especially with the way Jim Harmon used them which was on supporter lawns only
2. Nedd didn't get enough earned media support from local papers to balance out the lack of marketing from the local signs
3. You can drop all the wasteful direct mail that you want, but the majority of the town showed no interest in either candidate's websites or the attack site which had some press.
4. While Nedd did well with the amount of votes he received, being associated with Obama hurt him a lot more in our town.  Of course Nedd did help get Obama elected President.

There really aren't any other conclusions.  For a local election it was very civil and didn't generate enough press for either candidate.  With quiet campaigns and lack of visible support/interest except for the signs, people pretty much voted like the top of the ticket.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Hey Governor Jon Corzine - Where's NJ's Job Growth?

I woke up this morning to the following headline in the Star Ledger "Jersey's Budget Gap Triples to $1.2 Billion" and I'm angry.  Of course I didn't vote for Jon Corzine, but where is NJ's job growth plan?  Don't tell me it is because of the recent downturn.  Governor Corzine has done nothing to spur job growth and I can't even find any plans of his for growth.  When you Google "jon corzine job growth" you get this nice article from the Star Ledger back in September 2008 called Corzine's job growth strategy faulted with these tidbits...

When Corzine and Rose took over, they set a goal of 70,000 new jobs a year and said they'd settle for 40,000. The state came close in 2006, with a rise of 33,900 jobs. But it gained only 4,700 jobs in 2007, and has lost 16,000 in the first eight months of 2008.

Figures released by the state last week show unemployment at a five-year high of 5.9 percent. The national rate was 6.1 percent.

It ranked 46th out of 50 states in total job growth in the first half of 2008, even though its total employment base is the 11th-largest.

The state was 21st in job growth in 2006 and 36th in 2007.

I also went to the Department of Labor and created this spreadsheet of private jobs.  Basically, the Corzine administation has done a horrible job of creating jobs in this state (up slightly in 2006, flat in 2007, and probably loss in 2008).  Where's the plan Governor?  I thought you were supposed to be a financial wiz?  Sure we have to cut expenses, but the key to solving our budget problem is work the tax revenue line and the way to fix that is to GET JOBS in this state.

Well the only good news for NJ and bad news for the US is that Governor Corzine is being mentioned for a job in the Obama administration.  Plus if he doesn't leave he is up for re-election this fall.  I'm not sure what Corzine has done to impress Barack Obama, but he can have him.

BTW - why would we in NJ believe that Corzine can create jobs now in this economic environment when he failed to create jobs in 2006/2007 at an acceptable rate?  We shouldn't expect this (thanks to Kate K for that last thought).

PardonMyFrench,

Eric