PardonMyFrench

The October Surprise Will Be a John McCain Win on Nov 4

OK it is nearing the end of Election 2008 and depending on what polls you are reading you'll get a different forecasted view.  Some of you readers might think it looks a little bleak for my client of the past few years, Senator McCain.  So why doesn't there seem to be panic with me?  Well I believe some of those polls are crappy and here's why...

1. The most important thing about any sampling is the population they pull the sample from.  Sure most casual observers can figure out polls based on registered voters are not as good as likely voters, but I go a little further.  If I see a NYTimes/CBS poll I don't pay any attention to it.  I see a MSNBC I don't even get past the M before I discount it.  For me, polls run by MSNBC I wouldn't trust at all because the universe of people they pull from.  Same as a survey of New York Times readers.  Zogby, Gallup, Reuters, etc are ones that I look forward to reviewing.
2. Even when it is a Zogby or Gallup based on likely voters the numbers are very different.  Heck maybe the campaigns own internal polling numbers are different.  Wonder why?  Well maybe you don't know how they are weighting likely voters or what that population looks like.  Maybe polls overweight youth voters, or women voters, or Democrats, etc.  The numbers based on the sample of likely voters therefore are different because they have their own methodology.  Me?  I look forward to the Gallup polls because I believe they have the best profile of likely voters.
3. Once we get past the national polls which are interesting, but more for looking at overall brand favorability and momentum, I put a lot of time into the state polling.  And my favorite state polls are the ones conducted by the local news organizations because I believe they have a better handle on their own universe of voters.  The sample problems apply with who the likely voter is in their samples.

Think I'm living in a bubble?  Think I'm delirious like other members of the campaign?  Why not read this article from an expert who is far away from the campaign?  In today's Wall Street Journal Karl Rove wrote the following article called Don't Let The Polls Affect Your Vote.  The polls were wrong in 2000 and 2004 and will probably be wrong in 2008.  Hence the October Surprise on November 4th.

P.S.  Think I've lost my mind?  Read this story American Journalism Review

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Keeping The Faith McCain Supporters

I just got back from my favorite bagel store - Chester Bagels where the owner, Henry, said to me - it doesn't look too good.  Here's what I told Henry and it is not all that dissimilar from what I wrote a few days ago.   We're still going to win.

• As of this writing, we still have 9 days left.  Sure early voting is going on, but the vast majority of the votes will be cast on November 4.  In this election cycle 9 days is an eternity
• We run better as an underdog than we do as a front runner.  When people have left us for dead, we've come back to surprise.
• We are working very closely with the RNC which is the #1 GOTV machine in history.  Until the DNC or Senator Government proves otherwise, I have faith in turn out.
• The Joe The Plumber/Wealth Distribution messaging is hurting Senator Government big time.  It isn't just the statement that is concerning, but it finally proves to undecideds that Senator Obama is extremely Liberal; a lot more liberal than even Hillary Clinton.
• One of the polls that I watch, Zogby, has been bugging me for a long time.  The specific number is that 19% of conservatives will vote for Obama.  I just don't believe that number - they are either pissed off and will hold their nose or they won't vote.  Either way, Zogby now shows the Senator 5.8% back from Senator Government with 6.6% undecided and a margin of error of 2.9%.
• The state polls are tightening and as campaign manager Rick Davis has said in meetings I've been in with him and in interviews if all we have to do is win typical Republican states to win then we are in good shape.  Obviously keep an eye on Ohio, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, and PA.
• Ignore all of this supposed McCain campaign in-fighting.  It is being generated from people, consultants that were either fired from the campaign or were never asked to be in the campaign.  They are bitter and upset and now see an opportunity to get their name in the news.  If you see quotes from either "a Senior adviser" or "someone close to McCain" don't believe a word they are saying.  Read this post from Mark McKinnon.
• Finally, when the undecided people turn to the internet to research their vote, they will find the greatest and most thorough search marketing campaign in the history of politics.  Our search efforts for Senator McCain will be there to direct them to the right information they are looking for to make the decision to vote for Senator McCain.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Springfield Acura Made My Car Beautiful Again

About 8 months ago I took my car into a local big chain auto shop (American Tire and Auto) where they did an inspection, servicing, and a complete brake job.  After that I noticed a loud whistle whenever I drove for 5 minutes and used the brakes.  So I took it back to them and asked them to check and they told me it was the new alloys used in the Acura brakes.  So I started waiting to see if anyone else's car sounded like mine and guess what?  I never heard the loud whistle, but I kept hoping it would work itself out.

I then called Somerville Acura in Bridgewater where I bought my car, but they have this new policy where I have to make an appointment with the service manager to discuss my car, but due to the campaign I missed my appointment.  I begged to drop it off and they said no.  So last week on my way to the office building I now own in Union NJ (1961 Morris Avenue), I dropped my car off at the Springfield Acura on Route 22.  They offered a free loaner car and two free car washes.  I didn't need the loaner because thanks to my Dad's death the other company I now own, leases two Jaguars (these are NOT chick cars).

I did meet with the service manager but it only took 5 minutes to write up what I was looking for.  They did a service and caught the heaviness I felt it my tires (nail in left front).  They took care of two minor recalls and did a complete detailing on my car.  Finally, they couldn't be sure about the brakes and since I still had 90% left on them they DID NOT recommend changing them.  They tried talking me out of spending the money (when was the last time you heard that?), but I gambled and had the back brakes fixed.  They did kind of confirm what American Tire told me so I'm not too angry at American Tire.

Guess what?  No more whistling.  The car is beautiful again.  Even two sales men said they were staring at my car all day and couldn't believe it had 75K miles on it.  Seriously, the car is brand new again, but I did pay $930 for everything.  However, that's OK but I feel sorry for Acura in Somerville and American Tire and Auto because they lost a customer.

If you own an Acura and live in NJ - go to Springfield Acura on Route 22.  Good servicing.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

SendTec Aims for Me and Mortally Wounds Itself Instead

SendTec decided last night to fire off a reply to my past posts that corrected their inaccurate observations and questionable use of data to "prove" their points.  I found their reply strange because it fails to address my major points and instead dives into a micro overview of my posts.  Unlike other search marketing agencies and luminaries who have spoken with me (Kevin Lee and Danny Sullivan) especially after I have corrected them, SendTec decides to roll around in the gutter with their response.  So I need to explain this to them once again...

1. I work for an agency Connell Donatelli who has years upon years of experience in the political world.  We've been running Senator McCain's online advertising from the very beginning.
2. What this means is that we have data, results, and experience so when you try to nitpick that we don't know how to use the keyword insertion tool properly you make a grave error.  Did you ever stop to think that we tested this years ago and have data to back up why we do things?  Nope.  You'd rather assume we don't know what we are doing.
3. When you speak about pay per click costs, did you ever stop to think about what our objectives are?  Don't you think it is in poor taste to comment on tactics when you don't understand the client's objectives?  Would you ever just make gross assumptions when it comes to how a client does things without understanding the client's goals?
4. Why do you think it is fair to comment on another agency's work?  Didn't you break an unsaid rule in the agency world by publicly commenting on another agency's work?  Would you publish something like that for DidIt's largest client?  I am defending my agency's work.
5. Have you ever worked in the political world and for that matter a Presidential Campaign?  You don't have any experience so when you make comments like "I think they should do this" or "now is the time" what do you base your observations on?
6. Your use of state data to prove your point is still horribly wrong and then instead of backing off you try to defend it.  If you knew anything in politics you'd realize that your choice of states to prove your point was off base.  I'd suggest a course in political science or two for you.
7. You aren't furthering the industry.  Unlike HitWise and other information sharing organizations you are a SEM agency.  You are doing this for self-promotion and to try and get a larger share of the budget.  If you were actually trying to "further" the industry you actually would have tried to interact with me when I've pointed out your inaccurate statements and gross assumptions without firing off a personal attack.
8. You make assumptions as to our role in the campaign and how we get our budget.  If you'd have ever spent any time searching (you know "the Google") you would have found articles and posts going back to the primary season which demonstrated what our role has been and how we get our funding.  Instead of doing that, you again made inaccurate assumptions.
9. In all of my posts defending my agency against your attacks I never once accused you of supporting one candidate over another.  You used my lack of referencing you in the WSJ article as proof which again you couldn't have been more wrong.  I didn't mention you because you added nothing (positive or negative) to the article and probably played the role of 3rd party in the article after other folks that the reporter called wasn't available.  You protest too much, so I'm beginning to think that you do have some political motivation.
10. I've made the posts on my blog and on Twitter to give people who truly want to learn and observe an opportunity to see what has been actually going on.  The information is there on my site for you to actually see what's been happening but you refused to view it or acknowledge it.  If you were really interested in pushing the "industry" forward as you claim, then why have you ignored the obvious information?  Instead you post false assumptions and make wild guesses and when I go to defend I'm personally attacked.

It is time for SendTec to move on and focus on whatever your core competencies are.  Clearly it is not trying to attack someone that has been quite open and vocal about sharing information about political search advertising.  BTW - did you catch The Washington Post article on political search called in Targeting Online Ads, Campaigns Ask: Who's Searching for What?   Curious as to why they didn't include SendTec.  SendTec should just stop "reporting" on the political search campaigns.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Post Debate Polls versus Kosher Political Polls

I've received a ton of emails, calls, and even my wife gets questioned in the Long Valley NJ Dunkin Doughnuts to talk about polls and politics.  So, let me give you an idea of which to believe, which not to believe, and what you should do with the polling data.  Oh and before you write or say to yourself - "oh you work for Senator McCain's campaign so this is slanted", let me explain to you my background. 

I graduated Rutgers University with a degree in Industrial Engineering (thinks sampling, operations research, efficiency models) and immediately went to The Rutgers Graduate School of Management for my MBA.  Once I graduated I was officially hired by AT&T Bell Laboratories in a group called Business Operations Analysis.  This group was staffed with statisticians and I built control-treatment experiments to measure the value of AT&T's promotions, I built databases, and I created predictive models.  Needless to say (really write) I know a thing or two about statistics and sampling.

ENTERTAINMENT AKA NOT WORTH YOUR TIME TALKING ABOUT THEM POLLS

These post debate polls where people go to a website or text a vote in are completely useless.  I don't pay attention to them and neither should you.  Besides the obvious answers of people voting multiple times, certain campaigns or groups game the system by rushing the vote, their sample universe isn't normalized to the voting population, and there are horrible skews when it comes to which site-news organization is sponsoring the poll.  During the Primary Season I had Google Alerts setup to monitor Ron Paul's supporters when they marshaled their people to "poll rush".  Wednesday night for example, a MSNBC debate poll showed 81% for Senator Government, 15% for Senator McCain, 2% not sure, 2% tie - is anyone REALLY shocked that the liberal MSNBC had these results?  Wow, that's important information; it’s the same with CNN and even Fox (but obviously not liberal).  I would not even waste my time with entertainment polls that allows quasi news people like Keith Olbermann to proclaim that the other guy won the debate.

REALISTIC POLLS BUT YOU NEED TO LOOK AT THEM THROUGH ANOTHER LENS

The polls and surveys run by the likes of Zogby's, Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, InsiderAdvantage, Eagleton, and etc are the more reputable ones.  What you need to look for is who the polling audience is (registered, likely to vote, etc), where they are located (national or regional), date, sample size, and some sort of quality rating of the polling firm; some polling firms are more respectable than others.  After looking at all of the numbers, you want to know what the margin of error is.  If Senator McCain has a 4% lead over Senator Government and the margin of error is 4% than the race is a dead heat.  Of course, some companies will write up a whole analysis based on the lead but in reality it is a dead heat and will change.  You also want to track the polling data over time.  Remember election day is a finite day (yes there is early voting and that only complicates matters) so what you want to see is momentum and positive movement for your candidate over time as you head towards the big day (kind of like betting on a horse that is a good closer).  As a reminder, check out this New Hampshire polling data for the January 8 Republican Primary.

OK SO WHERE DO YOU GO TO GET YOUR PUBLIC DATA?

So, I like to look in a few places to see the latest polling data. First, I have a RSS feed setup for racefor2008.com. I have to admit I spent a lot more time on that site during the primary season but they still do a great job of just publishing opinion polls as soon as they come out.  Next up is RealClearPolitics because I like the easily customizable map and the ability to drill down on a state and look at the polling data over time.  I also have a RSS feed setup for Electoral-vote only because I like the way the map is presented and you can quickly get a status on the data.  I don't like how they layer a state in based on the spread because a lot of time it is within the margin of error.   Finally, one site I pay little attention to these days is Factcheck.org. Sure a lot of people believe they aren’t as unbiased as they would have you believe, but for me I think they are going way too far. The post they lost me on was the one when they critiqued our campaign regarding Joe Biden saying that B and he don’t support clean coal. Biden said it, we caught it on video, and it is fair game. It wasn’t taken out of context and while it contradicts what is on their website, that is FAIR game. It says a lot about their character and whether you trust what they are saying. Biden made that comment with a lot of conviction. Was it a typical Biden gaffe? Perhaps, but that doesn’t mean that Factcheck should ding us for it.

What all this means is vote for the person you want to win (thanks for pointing that out to me NickV) and stop letting polls and main stream media cloud your judgment.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

 

 

 

 

 

Watching Joe The Plumber on Google Trends

So I of course heard about Joe The Plumber a lot earlier in the day, but I wasn't sure if it was something that would be needed or wanted in our search campaign.  However, as soon as Senator McCain mentioned it during the October 15 debate with Senator Obama, we knew it would be hot.  Well as I write this post it is the 3rd hottest search term on Google and coincidentally it is behind two other debate topics "congressman lewis" and "repudiate". 

Anyway so within minutes after becoming a debate topic we put it into the search campaign sending it into our Rhetoric versus Record landing pages.  We were the only one there for about 90 minutes and then the advertisers started.  Now you have the RNC (!) and a host of others (see below) but I can't find an Obama ad and I checked in multiple states (correction - I saw an Obama ad about 1AM but that was just as I was going to bed and when I checked at 9AM their ads were gone).

Above is the first Joe The Plumber Google ad and then a screen shot of the other advertisers that quickly jumped on board including a travel company, Superpages.com, and Plumber directories.  The advertising competition around Joe The Plumber keywords is now very very fierce but I wonder if some of these advertisers have th budget to hang in there.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

P.S.  Regarding the Barack Obama text ads when they are live (the ads curiously shut off multiple times per day which is odd considering they have a ton of money) mention "Joe The Plumber's Tax Cut Calculator" and take the clicks to a tax cut calculator landing page.  I find this extremely strange because Joe's point was that if he did upgrade his business he'd be in a different tax bracket and then would get hit with Obama's tax increase.  Sending clicks to this page seems like a bait and switch.  Here's the video...

 

You Want a Corn Maze Challenge? Visit Stony Hill in Chester NJ

About a year back I wrote a post called Old School Facelift #4 - NJ Corn Mazes where I gave some free advice on attracting new visitors to the Stony Hill Farm in Chester NJ.  Sadly they didn't see my post or didn't make the suggested changes to their marketing, but on a good note this year's corn maze is even harder than last year's maze.

As you can see from the video we were determined to make it through this year without any help and within record time.  We dropped off $44 for the four of us and bought a big bottle of water just in case we needed it.  I even snapped a photo of the maze to help with the our travels.  We also decided to ignore the puzzles along the way (they weren't that hard anyway because the questions were based on election trivia).

90 minutes or so later we were beat and needed help.  Like a lot of people we got lost in the orange section of the maze which much to my chagrin was the mule part of the maze.  Yes the Democrats did me in again, but this time it was Saturday with a ton of other maze travelers.  Even though I wanted to push on, Mary and the kids were exhausted and we were given directions out which was a slight improvement over last year when we were escorted out.

You want a challenge?  Go visit the Stony Hill Corn Maze in Chester NJ.  Bring or buy your 3D glasses and plenty of water because you will need it.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

What's The Value of A Lawn Sign?

It is the middle of October and thankfully my beautiful town of Long Valley NJ (aka Washington Township NJ) has not had the rolling hills and fall colors desecrated by a proliferation of campaign signs.  That is campaign signs for the local election here in town.  Sure I put up about 100 signs when I ran for Board of Education and along with the other candidates, the town was plastered with lawn signs.  In fact, one former board of education member gave me some advice when I met with him; that advice was "if you want to win, you'll put up as many lawn signs as possible".  So what gives with the local election?  Aren't campaign signs part of the basic political strategy?  Before I give some observations a little background.

• It is a town committee election between incumbent Independent turned Democrat Kevin Nedd and Board of Ed member, Republican Jim Harmon
• Kevin has been accused of putting up unattributed signs. 
• Jim Harmon wanted a gentleman's agreement with Kevin regarding when signs could go up.
• Kevin upped the ante and said let's not put any signs up and donate the money that they would have used to pay for the signs to a charity.
• Jim said he wouldn't have his campaign tactics dictated by his opponent

So what does the town look like?  I have yet to see a Kevin Nedd sign and I have seen a number of Jim Harmon signs but only I people's lawns and not on your typical "public" spots.  There are McCain signs as well as ones from "that other guy", but once again on people's property.  I wonder how long that will last?  I won't put up any McCain signs unless the campaign or the RNC asks me to (back in primary season I did it on my own because Senator McCain didn't have a ton of NJ infrastructure support until Rudy dropped out).

Typically the value of the signs lets people know in a public way that they support the candidate and it is ok to vote for the candidate (targeted at undecideds).  It goes after the herd mentality that people want to vote for a candidate that has a large following and they want to feel good about their vote.  It also helps with GOTV (get out the vote) in a cheap, cost effective way.   I guess there is some brand value too, but I don't place much weight in that at the national level.  Bottom line - it helps with GOTV and the herd mentality of voting with a majority.  You'd think that would be useful in a local campaign.

However Kevin Nedd has abstained from the lawn sign strategy.  I know Kevin and he isn't dumb.  He is probably betting that he has enough registered Democrats and that he has good name recognition.  Kevin also is relying on letter writing, his public record, interviews in the local paper, and his status on the Town Council to keep his name in the public domain and to communicate with potential voters.  He also knows from the gentleman's agreement that a lot of people dislike those signs especially the ones in common areas.  He also has a detailed driven website.  By not putting up the signs he is trying to set a standard for local elections.  Perhaps there will be direct mail (yuck) and an email campaign, but as of now he is "signless".

Jim Harmon meanwhile is employing signs but in a respectful manner.  I see nothing wrong with supporters putting up signs on their property.  Jim is also relying on direct mail, interviews, the Board of Education (it has less visibility except when it comes to Math), and for a period of time was running a lot Google search ads in NJ.  The bulk of the search terms have since be replaced by advertising for an attack site called KevinNeddSaid but I am unsure as to whether they are linked because there is no official campaign disclosure on the website.  The KevinNeddSaid ads are heavily rotated in.  It is curious that the ads never appear together at the same time, but that's a question for Google.

So without the signs it really comes down to who knows their base better and who knows the undecideds in town better.  Who can best bring their case to why voters should support them and who sounds/reads better in local debates and articles.  Who has better brand awareness and can appeal to make their case to the herd voters.  The GOTV aspect of lawn signs will be delivered by the National Campaigns. 

It should be very interesting to see how this turns out and what weight the lawn signs really have in an election.  Back in my old AT&T Bell Labs days, this is what you'd call a control treatment experiment with the extra treatment being the lawn signs.  Of course this local election isn't a kosher experiment because the underlying controls are not normalized between the campaigns, but still it makes for interesting observations.  Personally, I already have my own theories on how it will turn out.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

MediaPost and SendTec Should Just Stop Reporting

This morning while I'm on my way to DC for meetings I got an alert in my email that the "non-search marketing geniuses" at SendTec once again put out curious data on search marketing on the Presidential campaigns.  Oh, and of course MediaPost had to report on it in their Red, White & Blog blog which was unfortunately launched 1 year too late.  Anyway, here's the data (I wouldn't call it information because that implies some analysis of the data) that is perplexing...

• A total of 150 keywords were searched in 14 states (equaling 2,100 total keyword possibilities)

• Obama’s search team bid on a total of 268 bids (12.7% of the total)

• McCain’s search team bid on a total of 208 bids (9.9%)

• The top 10 Swing States (OH, NM, PA, FL, NV, MO, MI, NH, VA, NC) had 1,500 keyword possibilities.

• Obama’s team bid on a total of 188 bids (12.5% of them).

• McCain’s team bid on a total of 179 bids (11.9%).

• Among four “secured states” (IL, NY, TX, IN; 2 for Obama, 2 for McCain) there were 600 keyword possibilities.

• Obama’s team bid on a total of 73 bids (12.1% of them).

• McCain’s team bid on a total of 28 bids (4.6%).

They also then talked about bidding on the search term "That One" which Senator McCain used in the previous debate. 

As I said on the Search Marketing Expo panel on Tuesday, it is time for all of these so called "search experts" to stop guessing as to what we are bidding on and commenting on why we aren't bidding on certain words. 

For example, while the term "That One" was one of the hottest search terms according to Google it doesn't necessarily mean it had significant traffic that Obama wanted to bid on it.  I'm sure like I did they saw that term and decided not to bid on it for their own reasons.  There have been plenty of terms that I've seen that I've chosen to ignore.  Also, picking 150 keywords out of the air and then doing some calculations on it is a complete waste of time.  Both teams at this point have their own strategies for words they are buying or not buying and randomly selecting them is useless. 

Plus, their calculations above are totally misleading but worse appear to be sound.  Here's why.  The amount of search traffic varies by state and just multiplying the random 150 words by the number of states to come up with your base is one of the most moronic calculations I've seen put out by someone who claims to be a search marketing expert.

LOOK MAYBE YOU GUYS DON'T UNDERSTAND THE SEARCH MARKET?  DO YOU REALLY THINK THE INTERNET POPULATION IN NY IS THE SAME AS NH?  LET ME GIVE YOU A MATH LESSON.  BY NOT NORMALIZING THE POPULATIONS IN A STATE YOU GAVE THE SAME WEIGHT TO THE TERM IN EACH STATE WHICH IS A COMPLETE FALSEHOOD.

You can't even measure our search campaigns properly.  Do you even know what a John McCain ad buy looks like anymore? Why would you even look in a state like NY?

SendTec and MediaPost should just stop trying to figure out what the two campaigns are doing when it comes to Search Marketing.  As I said at the Search Marketing Expo (you can read posts here, here, and here), the campaigns are far more sophisticated than you observers give us credit for.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

P.S.  Since SendTec was so "kind" to send traffic my way allow me to correct some more falsehoods published in that "article". 

1. I didn't mention you when I commented on that WSJ article because your comment added nothing (positive or negative) to that article. 
2. While you can only make weak observations about what we should or shouldn't be doing and then try to show your "knowledge" in the industry, I have the data and the results to prove what we are doing and why we are doing it; that includes what we think is expensive for a click and why we don't CAPS the keyword insertion
3. You seem to forget who worked on this campaign from day 1 and that search has been a critical component from the very beginning.
4. My post above didn't accuse you of being politically biased but you chose to write about it as if I did.  This demonstrates that a) you were probably too sensitive about that subject b) makes you look guilty when it comes to having a bias - you protest way too much
5. Finally, we are not having a debate.  I have access to the data and the results; you can only observe, nitpick, and try to self-promote yourself.

Mccain 2008 - Why I'm Not Worried

Interesting day today for Mary and I.  I woke up to an early morning call regarding John McCain's Homeownership Resurgence Plan and then my wife and I went our separate ways.  When we finally met for dinner she had to give me a recap as to how it is tough for her to walk through Long Valley and Chester NJ without someone stopping her regarding the Presidential Campaign.  The answers to their questions basically boil down to this - I'm not worried and neither should you.  Here's why and this is my own personal view and nothing secret.

1. For those of you joining the big show recently, campaigns have a life of their own.  There are ups and downs.  It is better to be down 30 days or so from the election rather than be down 2 weeks from the election.
2. So many things can happen in 4 weeks; heck the Dow Jones looked great 30 days ago.  It was at 11,500 in early September.
3. Last summer (2007) if you were paying attention, John McCain's campaign looked dead.  I was down in Crystal City when the old leadership team was replaced with the current team led by Rick Davis.  While we wished the numbers looked better at the time, I told people and one reporter that people were focused and not gloomy. We were focused on helping the Senator get his message out.
4. I have a tremendous amount of faith in the leadership team - I still can't forget sitting in a conference room last summer focused on Iowa, NH, MI, NC, and FL.  There is a plan.
5. Senator McCain seems to perform so much better when people take him for granted or count him out.  We were in 3rd place in New Hampshire 1 month before election day.
6. The economy is front and center now.  I believe we have a good plan for the country and you readers will see it played out in the coming days.  Plus, we have new messaging which you will see soon.

Look if you are really worried there are a ton of things you can do even if you are in a non-battleground state like New Jersey.  You can make calls from your home.  I've made 1000s of a calls and I can only remember a few where the people on the other end were upset.  You can make comments on blogs - right and left (watch the ones on the left because you can get flamed).  You can send out emails to friends and family.  You can put a sign on your lawn or you can even travel to a battleground state and volunteer like I did in South Carolina.  Volunteer because now is the time.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

Springsteen Helping Obama - He's The Nothing Man

My long time readers are probably waiting for this post.  Ever since Bruce Springsteen announced that he was hosting rallies in support of Barack Obama including a show with Billy Joel, I've actually been snickering a little.  You see it amounts to nothing. 

Bruce is preaching to the converted.  According to Rasmussen (looking at just national polls for this quick post) as of October 5, 45% say they will definitely vote for Obama, 38% say they will vote for Senator McCain, 13% say they will change their mind and 4% are undecided or will vote for a 3rd party.  Cross that with Springsteen's dwindling fan base and really Bruce's best shot is that he is preaching to Obama supporters - WOOT.

Maybe you want to see Bruce and Billy Joel in the Hammerstein Ballroom in NYC.  Sounds like an 80s retro dream concert right?  Well if you go to order the tickets online you are plunking down $2,500 to $10K per ticket on Obama's website.  Oh and in case you didn't read the fine print, the first $2,300 goes to Obama and the rest of the money goes to the DNC.  At those amounts of money plus the fact they are political donations once again means these are hard-core supporters.  If you are going to give $2,500 you are definitely not undecided.  The nearest toss-up state to NYC according to RealClearPolitics is Virginia proving once again that Bruce is "helping" out in states that don't need his help.

At least Bruce got it right this time.  He didn't corrupt his regularly scheduled concert this time around like he did towards the end of The Rising Tour and he didn't hook up with those lowlifes at MoveOn.org like he did for the Vote for Change Tour.  So, I have no ill feelings towards my rock and roll hero trying to help Obama out. 

It is just one of those moments like when your crazy Uncle Herman shows up at a neighbor's house for Thanksgiving and even though he doesn't recognize anyone he says "Hello I'm your Uncle Herman".   You just say to yourself, that's my Uncle Herman, now pass the damn turkey.

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

9:40 PM AND SARAH PALIN IS AWESOME

WOOT!!!!  Palin is awesome in tonight's debate.  For those of you who asked me about her while I'm was around town including my own Mother -

I FRIGGIN TOLD YOU SHE WOULD BE AWESOME TONIGHT!!!

PardonMyFrench,

Eric

SendTec and MediaPost Still Clueless on Presidential Search

Back in January 08 I wrote a post called SendTec and MediaPost Clueless on Presidential Search in which I proved how utterly clueless these two were in their analysis on how the then Presidential Candidates were using search.  Imagine my surprise when in my email box this morning I saw a headline from MediaPost called Candidates Flip Flop (Search Strategies).  So, I'm thinking when I saw the posts hmmmm, I guess people are seeing more aggressive paid search from Obama which I expect.  But, no.  These two (SendTec and MediaPost) screwed up again.  Here's what these two non-searching geniuses wrote

"Search marketing firm SendTec found the Obama campaign capitalized on the Mississippi showdown with McCain by bidding on debate and issue-related keywords including "debate winner," "presidential debate," and "economic crisis." And ads and landing pages were designed to direct viewers to watch the debate. McCain, by contrast, didn't try to build a similar search campaign around the debate."

Gee whiz that's funny.  SendTec found Obama paid search around the debate but didn't find any around McCain.  Hmmm I wonder what we spent all that money on?  I wonder what I was doing late into Friday night and early Saturday morning?

SERIOUSLY SENDTEC.  DID YOU REALLY THINK WE WOULDN'T HAVE PAID SEARCH ADS AROUND THE DEBATE?  PERHAPS YOUR DATA IS WRONG AGAIN!  PERHAPS YOU DON'T KNOW WHERE TO SEARCH?  PERHAPS YOU ACTUALLY NEED TO LEARN TO USE GOOGLE?

Oh, then SendTec followed up on this one too "Besides "economic crisis," neither bid on terms related to key issues including Iraq/Iran, war, bailout plan or Wall Street."  Wow, SendTec thanks for the "analysis".  Why don't you try a new line of work.  As for MediaPost, well perhaps you should try digging in a little deeper before you are so quick to put out a story so you can have an article with Obama's picture in it.

On the same day this "story" came out in MediaPost a much more thorough and accurate picture of the current state of Presidential Search came out in AdAge.  The article called McCain Winning Search-Ad Race by Abbey Klasssen uses well researched examples and several sources of data to measure the impacts of search on the Presidential race.  It even included a few painful comments towards the bottom, but as a whole a balanced article; even if my quotes didn't make it in the end.

SendTec really should just try a new line of work or at least check in with Google or better yet try Googling a little more before publishing such wrong conclusions. 

PardonMyFrench,

Eric