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What do you think of the methodology of http://www.fivethirtyeight.com as a poll-of-polls?

Steve,

I'll check that out. Thanks

Eric

Eric, did you really mean your last statement in this post? Vote for the person you "think" will win" Because if you really stop and "think" about it you might come to the same conclusion Frank Lund came to, that Obama will win. The two polls that struck me this past week had little to do with the "industrial" polling machines.

1. Scholastic ran a poll of a quarter of a million kids and Obama won 57 to 39%. They have not been wrong since 1940.

Results from the swing states were interesting:

Colorado: McCain 61% Obama 36% Other 3%
Florida: McCain 41% Obama 55% Other 4%
Indiana: McCain 51% Obama 47% Other 2%
Iowa: McCain 48% Obama 49% Other 3%
Michigan: McCain 40% Obama 57% Other 3%
Missouri: McCain 49% Obama 47% Other 4%
Ohio: McCain 47% Obama 51% Other 2%
Pennsylvania: McCain 46% Obama 50% Other 4%

2. The Roxbury Middle school, in a town that overwhelmingly voted for Bush in 2004 gave Obama a 27% win. 27% in Republican Morris county.

I agree with you that polls are flawed in many ways. Funny thing about kids is they are usually will telegraph what they learn at home even while their parents might lie to a pollster.

And honestly I know you're voting for the person you "want" to win.

Hey NickV,

I actually meant to write vote for the person you want to win. I'm not too interested in the kids polls this year. Obama is pulling in more of a youth vote and I'd expect that to carry down to younger kids too. Thanks for your post.

Eric

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