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Hi Eric,

Do you have further reading regarding direct mail as a waste of marketing dollars?


Hi Eric,

Interesting analysis.

a few thoughts:

-- Harmon's late signs that said "Harmon McCain Vote Republican" were important in tying his name to the Republican ticket and getting Repubs to go all the way down the ticket.

-- A comparison to Nedd's former victory in 2005 is interesting. There was no Dem on the ballot, so as an Indy no one to the left of him, so he picked up all those for free. He was also successful in getting a fiscal message out that got to the right of the Repub nominee (11 percent, Take Five, etc). That picked up Republican support following a bitter Repub primary with charges of illegality between the two camps.

So he ran to the laft and the right of the Repub nominee in 2005. Since he was a relative unknown, not much to counter that.

Once he tied himself to Obama, he lost the chance to pick up the conservative right wing votes.

So 2005 was a perfect storm, and it still was a very narrow victory. The only way Kevin could have won this time is to recreate that dynamic, stay an Indy, and there be no Dem on the ballot. But the Dems are determined to build their franchise, so that wasn't going to happen.

Had Kevin stayed an Indy in this race and the Dems put up Harlin or someone else, Kevin would have finished a distant third. To his credit he recognized that and did what he could.


All good points. I don't agree with the last second Harmon-McCain signs as being important to go all the way down the ticket. Jim got the least amount of Republican votes on the slate, but then again he won and I have no other data to back that up other than the slate counts.


Hi Eric,

I believe both Kevin and Jim tallied about 400 less votes than the top of the ticket.

I thought the late Harmon/McCain republican signs were a good move to copper his bet. They weren't expensive, I think he bought 25. It was important that Jim be recognized as a Republican, since Kevin had received many cross-over votes last time around.

Jim also had a name recognition challenge running against an incumbent, which only Zim had on the slate, top to bottom...

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family.

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