I worked for the old and better AT&T for 10 years and it was on retention marketing. Those years were during the the great winback wars with MCI and Sprint where a new customer could get $100 or more for switching back.
You remember those days? You had to stay for 6 months and then you could start the process again. People would complain that as a long time customer they couldn't get a check or at least a good offer. Well here's why and why I wonder how Obama will measure saves - saved jobs that is.
The reason a new customer got $100 is because all of their revenue was new and the business case worked as long as they stayed for 6 months or so. Winback = new job created by Obama's spendulus plan. On the retention side you never knew who would leave AT&T so you applied our customer leave rate and came up with a number of potential people who would leave. This number was then multiplied by a save rate (% of people who would stay because of an offer) and this number was who we saved. Think saves as jobs saved by Obama's spendulus plan.
So the reason winback got better offers was because their entire new revenue was put up against the cost of the offer. Retention offers were much worse because you could only apply the full cost of the offer against a smaller % of the people that received it. Measuring winbacks = easy count, measuring saves = derived number with a lot of assumptions.
So I ask you, how is the Obama Administration going to measure a saved job? The stated goal of the spendulus plan is to save or create 3 to 4 million jobs. See for yourself the language used state by state in the details supplied by the White House. Now if Obama's plan creates 3+ million jobs that's awesome and easy to measure. You take the private sector employment number when Obama took office and see when you get 3+ million jobs and then you're in. Easy.
However, what happens if it doesn't grow jobs? Then how do you measure saving a job? Is that saving one from going overseas? How do you know a job will leave? How do you know a job will go away? If all of those PHDs at Bells Labs couldn't figure out who is likely to leave a telecommunications company does anyone really think the Government can figure out which jobs will leave?
I really wonder how the Obama administration will measure a saved job? What does Obama mean when he markets his spending plan and says the goal is to create or save jobs? Anyone answer for me? I'd like to know because some other people are starting to ask what it means to save a job.
PardonMyFrench,
Eric
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